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Tracks of my tears: where does the fault lie when books fail to hit?
Sales data metrics are useful tools to place books in the market, but when a title does not meet expectations, why do authors take most of the blame?
Does the publishing industry have a gambling problem? And, if so, who loses? A recent long-read in Canadian magazine The Walrus raised the thorny issue of who is blamed when a book does not sell, suggesting that responsibility is placed unfairly on the shoulders of authors, who may struggle to get future deals if earlier books have bad “sales track”.
The Walrus points out that many factors contribute to sales, but argues that when things break down it is the writer who tends to take the hit. Publishers might argue that not wanting to bet again on a horse that lost an earlier race is simply capitalism. But the article has sparked a wider conversation over whether it should be “the writer who carries the failure on their record”, rather than the “team” behind the book.
Sales track refers to books’ performance at the tills (and online) with the main data provider NielsenIQ Bookdata. Most publishers have access to BookData but many agencies, and certainly few individual authors, do not opt in for the full data package. How this is used in decision-making has become crucial.
“Sales track is an issue, and it is rarely the author’s fault, if ever,” says DHH Literary MD David Headley, who points out the high staff turnover in publishing houses as one of the major issues driving poor sales. “An editor buys the book, then the editor leaves, an assistant takes over. There is no marketing spend. There is no real passion, because it was not bought by that editor. So how does that affect the author’s career?”
Headley says this happened to one of his authors recently. “The book sold 275 copies. It was a lead title but the editor had left, and therefore that book was orphaned, and that is the reality of the situation. Publishers need to get control of what they’re doing.”
The Bookseller asked the major UK publishers about their attitude to sales track in deciding future deals. A spokesperson for Pan Macmillan says: “The article in The Walrus highlights a very real tension in our industry. Yes, we’re a business, and we need to be financially stable to thrive, but what really drives us is the belief that our purpose is to bring a rich diversity of stories, knowledge and ideas to readers everywhere.
“We’re not just in the business of selling books; we’re in the business of building authors. Our financial stability is what allows us to take a chance on a new voice, and to give authors the time and space they need to build a lasting career. This is how we discover and nurture the writers who will shape our culture for generations to come.”
Simon & Schuster declined to comment and press contacts at Penguin Random House (PRH), Hachette, HarperCollins, Bonnier and Bloomsbury did not respond to enquiries.
But authors are speaking about their experiences with sales track. One, who wishes not to be named, was published by a UK Big Four house (PRH, Hachette, HarperCollins, Pan Macmillan) in September to huge fanfare, with considerable marketing spend and a PR campaign. The title thus far has shifted 400 copies. Another said she has had “seriously bad track” but has still sold four further books to two publishers.
Laura Jane Williams, who has had 15 novels published in the past decade, including with Penguin and Bloomsbury YA, says: “The culture of being judged on my track by publishers and retailers alike horrifies me. It’s my name on the book cover and my reputation – if my sales fall and my advances are lowered to reflect that, it is literally food off my table. But the other people involved in publication aren’t fiscally penalised this way: my editor doesn’t earn less for their work, or the head of the supermarket team who didn’t shift enough units. Any perceived failure is mine and mine alone, yet what about the rest of the team involved in the book? Authors are too often left out to dry, but we don’t talk about it on record because we’re terrified even the crumbs we can be left with will be taken away.”
And, of course, whether sales are “good” or “bad” is in some way relative, depending on factors like size of the initial advance and the structure of the deal. Curtis Brown agent Cathryn Summerhayes says: “In the UK there are four major trade publishers housing 90% of the imprints. As a result, it’s incredibly easy to work out [how much a publisher paid for a book]. If everybody wants it they all know what numbers they’re allowed to offer, so they’ll know roughly what was paid. It’s not rocket science.”
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Summerhayes says the trend of multi-book deals complicates matters. “If you’re renewing a contract with an author, and their sales have been poor, it is particularly difficult if a publisher has offered a two-book deal. If they’ve paid a £100,000 advance for two, there’s a £50,000 advance on a book that hasn’t worked sales-wise, then they’ve got another £50,000 book which involves reinventing an author that hasn’t worked.”
Authors are too often left out to dry, but we don’t talk about it on record because we’re terrified even the crumbs we can be left with will be taken away – Laura Jane Williams
Having said that, Summerhayes thinks publishers see beyond the money. “Sales track used to be a key player in decisions. Lately, however, it is more on the merit of the book. Every single book has to be a passion project, whether you paid £5,000 for it or £500,000. I don’t blame the publishers, because their bandwidth is incredibly thin. At this time of year they’re getting 200 submissions a week, publishing books, doing sales conferences, meeting scouts and foreign publishers. We’ve reached this complex overload. Unfortunately, it’s the author who tends to suffer at the beginning of the food chain. Author care should be paramount and perhaps that is being forgotten in the scramble.”
Headley thinks the future of publishing will suffer if publishers prioritise “track” over the merits of the book. He says: “If we’re not building the future bestselling authors, what’s happening to all of the authors that we’re dropping after two books because the second book doesn’t work and the first book was a disappointment? Publishers are all chasing these big books, paying absolute fortunes, they’re not working, and then it’s the author’s fault.” Summerhayes agrees: “It’s a lottery, unfortunately, and it’s gutting [and] there are going to be more losers than winners.”
While the gambling comparison is depressing, publishers do invest in authors for the long term. Trisha Jackson, publishing director at Pan Macmillan, says: “The story of Kristin Hannah’s career in the UK is a testament first to her remarkable talent, but also to a flexible, open-minded approach from author, agent and publisher. Already a huge number-one bestselling author in the US, we first published Kristin in the UK in 2009, and it wasn’t until 12 years later that her sales took off in the UK with The Four Winds. Readers have since gravitated to her backlist and The Nightingale has now sold over one million copies in all formats in our markets. Kristin’s latest novel, The Women, is one of the bestselling paperbacks of 2025, and her books have now sold more than 25 million copies worldwide.”
Jackson adds: “There is no better feeling for a publisher than seeing an author’s career flourish in this way. It’s a validation of that initial belief, of the patience and dedication it takes to nurture talent over years and multiple books. This is why we get into publishing – to find those voices that have something to say and give them the time and space to build a relationship with their readers.”
