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Jamie Oliver will beat J K Rowling to the Christmas number one book spot, the majority of retailers predict, as booksellers gear up for an "astonishingly strong" festive season.
The celebrity chef will release 15-Minute Meals (Michael Joseph) on 27th September, the same day as J K Rowling's eagerly awaited The Casual Vacancy (Little, Brown). A two-horse race to the number one title is expected, with Bertrams, Asda, Blackwell's and Sainsbury's predicting Oliver will pip Rowling to the top spot by a small margin. Foyles web editor Jonathan Ruppin said Rowling was Oliver's "only threat".
Of the 10 retailers interviewed-Waterstones, W H Smith, Amazon, Kobo, Bertrams, Gardners, Sainsbury's, Asda, Foyles and Blackwell's-many expected Olympic fever to run on until December and influence book sales, especially with the likes of Bradley Wiggins' My Time (Yellow Jersey) hitting shelves on 8th November. Ruppin said: "We fully expect the star of the games to be our star performer in sport and biography."
Bertrams' Jo Hilliard agreed and predicted biographies from Olympic stars Jessica Ennis and Seb Coe (both Hodder & Stoughton) would also win sales. Wholesalers Bertrams and Gardners tipped Clare Balding's My Animals and Other Family (Viking) for a strong performance at the tills, with Sainsbury's marking it out as its Christmas "dark horse". Book buying manager Phil Carroll said: "Following her brilliant coverage at the Olympics she is a commentating icon. This is definitely one to watch."
Another strong candidate is David Walliams, whose October memoir Camp David (Michael Joseph) is tipped by Amazon, Waterstones, Sainsbury's and Asda, with his children's story Ratburger (HarperCollins Children's Books) also expected to sell well by Bertrams and Gardners.
In fiction, retailers pinpointed as big sellers Ian Rankin's Standing In Another Man's Grave (Orion), Ian McEwan's Sweet Tooth (Jonathan Cape), Maeve Binchy's A Week in Winter (Orion), Martina Cole's The Life (Headline) and Lee Child's A Wanted Man, sales of which according to Waterstones managing director James Daunt "ran off like a train" after it was published on 30th August. Waterstones and Kobo are backing C. J. Sansom's post-war spy thriller Dominion (Mantle) to do well out of a strong autumn line-up. Daunt called the Christmas publishing programme "astonishingly strong", although he pointed out: "The more popular end of publishing will quite clearly go digital."
W H Smith book business unit director Rachel Russell said she was "particularly excited by the hardback line-up in cookery and fiction this year, not just because of Jamie and J K Rowling". Nigella Lawson's Nigellissima (Chatto) was tipped by Amazon, Bertrams, Asda and Sainsbury's, while Waterstones, Blackwell's and Foyles chose Nigel Slater's Kitchen Diaries II (Fourth Estate) to do well. In music, Waterstones, Gardners and Asda marked out Rod Stewart's autobiography to be a popular gift book.
Amazon's books manager Darren Hardy said: "I think it's a strong year this year, a great year for cookery, fiction, biographies and children's books." However humour, children's novelty and popular science were highlighted by retailers as generally weaker publishing areas this autumn.