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An absence of shoppers, the lack of an effective "Richard & Judy" replacement, the collapse of Borders and Hughes & Hughes and the poor weather have all been blamed for the market falling 6% in the first quarter of 2010. But there are also signs of a spring pick-up, with Easter particularly strong.
According to Nielsen BookScan data for the 12 weeks to 20th March, £334.9m was spent on books, down 6% year on year. Book sales are at their lowest since 2006 but the year-on-year drop in value is the sharpest since 2001. HarperCollins UK c.e.o. and publisher Victoria Barnsley said the numbers were "worrying for everyone in the book trade", while Bertrams’ m.d. Michael Neil said that there had been "no real buzz around books". However, Random House UK c.e.o. Gail Rebuck pointed to a "marked uplift" since March, a view also backed by Neil.
Sales at the majority of the big houses fell back, with the Independent Alliance also contracting after a stellar 2009.
Market leader Hachette’s sales were £53m, down 7.9%. Its market share fell by 0.3 percentage points to 15.8%. Hachette UK c.e.o. Tim Hely Hutchinson said, excluding Stephenie Meyer’s Twilight series, "underlying sales are above last year’s".
Hachette’s market share lead over RH increased during the quarter. RH’s sales of £40.9m were down 11.7% year on year. Its market share fell 0.8 percentage points to 12.2%. Highlighting the "marked uplift" in sales during the last four weeks and "triple-digit growth" in e-book sales, Rebuck insisted that sales were not out of step with expectations.
Penguin was the only publisher among the big four to increase sales, up 2.1% to £33m. Its market share rose 0.8 percentage points to 9.9%. Penguin c.e.o. Peter Field said: "It’s a good all round performance. If it keeps going like this we’ll be very pleased. There are books out there, people just need to go out and buy them. We’d like to see this continue, so far so good, we like the shape of our list."
At HC, sales fell 6.9% to £24.7m. Its market share shrank by 0.1 percentage points to 7.4%. Barnsley said: "Fiction is performing well and Wolf Hall continues to break every record set by previous Booker winners. Although the market was down in non-fiction, sport and celebrity are still big sellers for us in this quarter . . . so I wouldn’t write off the genre just yet. It is fair to say that we are missing the Richard & Judy effect in the paperback market though."
The Independent Alliance was hit heavily during the quarter, with sales down 14.7% to £10.7m. Its market share fell 0.3 percentage points to 3.2%. Among those whose sales were most affected were Canongate (down 66.9%), Faber (down 15.3%) and Atlantic (down 34.4%). However, Quercus, inspired by strong sales of Stieg Larsson, had a sales boost of 150.8% during the quarter.
Referring to the likes of Faber’s The Secret Scripture and Canongate’s Obama titles in 2009, IA co-ordinator and Faber head of sales and marketing Will Atkinson said some publishers had some "very big books [last year], which had not been replaced". He said: "Everyone has been on a good run for the last two years, so don’t worry. We’ll be back."
First quarter: reaction
Tim Hely Hutchinson, Hachette UK c.e.o.
"The UK market is 6% down on this time last year and our market share has inevitably steadied a little [down 0.3%] from its peak as a result of Stephenie Meyer’s Twilight series passing the amazing levels it achieved last year."
Victoria Barnsley, c.e.o. and publisher at HarperCollins
"Of more concern is the market which is considerably down and that’s worrying for everyone in the book trade. External factors such as the continuing economic problems and the collapse of Borders in the UK and Hughes and Hughes in Ireland continue to impact the numbers."
Peter Field, c.e.o. at Penguin
"I’m certainly not saying everything is hunky dory. I think if you’ve got the books people want then you’ll be all right. Speaking to retailers they have said things are picking up, but footfall is definitely down."
Gail Rebuck, c.e.o. of Random House
"The slower start to this year [down 11.7% in value terms] is in line with our expectations and should be seen in the context of our very strong start to 2009 when we had massive paperback bestsellers and high performing film tie-ins."
Michael Neil, m.d. of Bertrams
"There just haven’t been the books around, or the coverage isn’t around, there’s no ‘Richard & Judy’. There is no real buzz around books. [Although] I think they’ve picked up in the last 3-4 weeks. We’ve had a good March and a very strong Easter."
Will Atkinson, co-ordinator of the Independent Alliance and Faber head of sales and marketing
"It’s been extraordinary. In some ways a drawing of breath is no massive surprise. Over the year we will be fine. I’m sure we will have growth over the year."