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Improved library budgets have mitigated an anticipated decline in journals subscriptions from the adoption of OA, according to US research and brokerage firm Bernstein Research.
A newly prepared report from the firm, seen by The Bookseller, said the upturn in library fortunes meant they had not been progressively abandoning contracts to achieve savings as was feared two years ago. Bernstein Research had also now reversed its 2012 view that political intervention in the UK and Europe would force a shift to full OA journals, with negative consequences to publishers such as Elsevier and Wiley.
"OA policies have proved right, so far, the critics who argued that they would not threaten the status of subscription publishers," the report stated. "The hybrid model deployed by subscription publishers to meet the requirements of the UK government is not threatening in any visible way the subscription model of the journals; the rate of adoption of deposit policies for US federal agencies, and the embargo period of 12 months also protect the position of subscription publishers."
However the research company warned that the risk of a return to budget cuts, should there be another recession, was "not inconsequential"; furthermore "the relative lack of transparency in how APCS [article processing charges for OA published articles] are returned to libraries adds to the concerns of a political backlash."