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Booksellers are feeling bullish as the four-week countdown begins to Christmas, despite a drop in volume and a "trend void". Several retailers have lamented a "lack of stand-out titles" this season, particularly without a festive boost in the shape of the Ladybirds for Grown-ups and Five Go... series which proved so popular last year.
However, a full week’s trading in the run-up to Christmas Eve in 2017 gives booksellers an edge over last year and, as retailers believe buyers are waiting later and later to buy presents, they are confident that the fourth quarter of the year will be profitable.
In the year to date, 155 million print books have been sold for £1.29bn: up 0.35% in value against the comparable period in 2016, but down 2.34% in volume terms. Value has risen after a gradual rise in average selling prices (a.s.p.) resulted in a number of record-setting weeks. For five weeks running, the a.s.p. through Nielsen BookScan’s Total Consumer Market was over £9—a figure exceeded for just two weeks in the entirety of 2016, 2015 and 2014. A.s.p. also hit a new high of £9.56, beating autumn 2003’s record of £9.44.
Perhaps reflecting the wane in popularity of the Ladybird for Grown-ups and Five Go... titles, last week’s print volume was down 11% against the same week in 2016, with non-fiction suffering a 16% drop. So far, the biggest seller from this year’s batch of both series, How it Works: The Baby, has sold 10,471 copies: at this point in 2016, Five on Brexit Island had shifted 53,124 copies.
James Daunt, m.d. of Waterstones, said: “This year an offer for non-core book buyers is lacking. It is very good for the core book buyer, but we do not have a Ladybird phenomenon going on. We have to hope that doesn’t impact on Christmas too much, but at the same time it does concern me.”
However, seeing the positive side, Sainsbury’s head of books and music, Peter Selby, said the "trend void" could lead to customers "trading up". He added: "The parody market that has served us so prodigiously over the past few years has reached the end of its natural shelf life this Christmas, and has left a bit of a trend void. However, we’re seeing a number of customers trading up to higher-end non-fiction such as Blue Planet II."
Despite a "slightly adverse year-on-year position", Selby said he remained “optimistic that Q4 will deliver come December”, adding: “The old, trite cliché about Christmas coming later each year is still relevant in 2017, especially as we get a full week’s trade in the run-up to Christmas Eve this year”. “Being diplomatic, challenging global events have conspired to leave even the hardiest souls feeling a bit battered and bruised in 2017, and as we approach the end of the year, it feels like there has never been a more important time to lose yourself in a book.”
Stanfords Window Display
Tony Maher, m.d. of Stanfords, said that the high street was "proving to be tough" and that footfall for its Covent Garden, central London flagship store was down 10%. Despite this, he said sales in October and November were up 1% year on year and he was pleased with the "wide range of strong new titles on offer".
Foyles’ chief executive Paul Currie was also confident about the coming weeks. “From an operational point of view, we are, as a business, in the strongest position ever to capture and inspire our customers for Christmas,” he said. “We are optimistic. Our view is that the gloom is manufactured in many cases... There are a great deal of positives out there. We should all start believing in ourselves. We have great books, they are extremely good value, our stores are looking amazing and our staff are truly fantastic. That equals positive.”
The picks of the bunch
Big-hitting gifting titles named by retailers include Jamie Oliver’s Jamie’s Quick & Easy 5-Ingredient Food (Michael Joseph), David Walliams’ Bad Dad (HarperCollins), Good Night Stories for Rebel Girls by Elena Favilli and Francesca Cavallo (Particular Books) and Philip Pullman’s La Belle Sauvage (Penguin Random House Children’s/David Fickling Books).
Blue Planet II by James Honeyborne and Mark Brownlow (BBC Books/ Penguin) was described as the "strongest BBC natural history tie-in in years" by Waterstones fiction buyer Chris White, while Headline’s Bletchley Park Brainteasers, authored by Sinclair McKay, is turning into "one of the biggest books of the year" for Sainsbury’s. The title was cited as a strong performer by many others.
More under-the-radar titles currently flying off the shelves include Mary Beard’s Women & Power (Profile Books) and The Lost Words by Robert Macfarlane and Jackie Morris (Hamish Hamilton), which customers are "falling in love with", according to Kate Claughan at The Book Case in Hebden Bridge, west Yorkshire.
Waterstones’ White suggested hope could arrive in the shape of the new E L James title Darker: Fifty Shades Darker as Told by Christian (Arrow), which was released on Tuesday (28th November). “We’re seeing a range of titles perform very strongly, while lacking a book to compare with the enormous reach of Fantastic Beasts... last year, although a new E L James may help to rectify that,” he said.
Supermarket Asda lamented the lack of a "really big sporting title", while Daunt Books’ Brett Wolstencroft thought that the "cookery [book market] is probably slightly weaker than last year".
However, retailers were perky overall. Nigel Wyman, head of business development at Gardners, said the company was "finding trade buoyant across all the retail channels", while owner of Scottish indie Atkinson-Pryce Books, Chris McCosh, described sales as "slightly ahead of last year", partly boosted by discounts offered by the Faber Alliance.
A two-horse race?
According to most retailers The Bookseller spoke to, Walliams and Oliver appear to be battling it out for the Christmas Number One. Amazon, Asda, Gardners and Irish indie Dubray Books singled out the pair as strong sellers. Selby backed Oliver for the top spot, as did Blackwell’s.
Blackwell’s also cited Pullman as a top seller along with Stanfords, with Welsh indie Rossiter Books backing La Belle Sauvage to be the Christmas Number One, although owner Andy Rossiter said he “would love The Lost Words to do it”.
Currie suggested that the onus was increasingly on booksellers to provide an "experience" for customers. "It is our role as booksellers to bring the same theatre and experience to readers’ worlds as coffee shops do to their [customers’]," he said. Blackwell’s Drew echoed this sentiment and suggested that "the opportunity is out there but we need to be increasingly innovative and create amazing customer experiences".
The Bookseller will be running its annual Christmas Trading Survey online later in December, with results to be published in January.
Five stocking fillers to set the tills ringing
Bletchley Park Brainteasers
Sinclair Mckay
Headline, £12.99, 9781472252609
Headline’s attempt to emulate the success of Christmas 2016 bestseller The GCHQ Puzzle Book (Michael Joseph) comes in the form of Bletchley Park Brainteasers, a book of puzzles supported by Bletchley Park, home of Britain’s code-breakers during the second World War. It is the current Paperback Non-fiction number one, and has sold 25,970 copies since publication last month.
Women and Power: A Manifesto
Mary Beard
Profile, £7.99, 9781788160605
This title sees classicist Mary Beard revisiting the gender agenda and revealing how history has treated powerful women. With examples ranging from the classical world to the modern day, from Medusa and Athena to Theresa May and Elizabeth Warren, Beard explores the cultural underpinnings of misogyny, considering the public voice of women and our cultural assumptions about women’s relationship with power.
The Lost Words
Robert Mcfarlane, Jackie Morris
Hamish Hamilton, £20, 9780241253588
Recent winner of the Books Are My Bag Most Beautiful Book award, The Lost Words is a celebration of nature words, written by McFarlane and illustrated by Morris. Written in response to Oxford University Press’ 2015 decision to cut nature words from the Oxford Junior Dictionary, McFarlane said he and Morris wanted to "find a way to release these simple wonder-words back into their stories and their dreams".
The Secret Life of Cows
Rosamund Young
Faber, £9.99, 9780571336777
Young’s farming memoir was originally published by a now defunct micro-indie, Farming Books & Videos, in 2003. It has since been reissued by Faber and delighted critics on its re-release last month. The title, which follows a herd of cattle in the Cotswolds, has sold 28,093 copies to date.
The Mistletoe Seller
Dilly Court
HarperCollins, £7.99, 9780008199555
Christmas-themed romance/sagas appear to be selling a lot stronger this year than in previous years. The bestseller of the current crop is The Mistletoe Seller, which has sold 54,247 copies since 2nd November. The book follows the life of a mistletoe seller who is attempting to find out the secrets of her past, which led to her being abandoned on the streets of Whitechapel as a baby.