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Many in the book trade have reacted with surprise and excitement to the General Election result earlier today (9th June), which saw the Conservatives fail to win a majority government, and Labour increase its number of seats by 29 – contradicting many pollsters’ predictions of a large Tory majority. However, there has also been widely expressed concern about the impact of prolonged uncertainty on businesses.
As the realities of a hung parliament start to set in, publishers and booksellers have also begun turning their sights on what the implications of the result could mean for Brexit.
The Society of Authors said: “If the aim of calling yesterday’s election was to stabilise government, shore up support and clarify direction, it is obvious today that it has had the opposite effect. No single party has the seats to form a majority government. No single party has a mandate to bring its manifesto to fruition. We will not even begin to speculate on what will happen next, in terms of the shape the next Government might take and how stable or turbulent UK politics might be in the months and years ahead." However, it vowed to continue to lobby for authors on fairer contract terms, a stable and clear copyright framework, a commitment to creators and the creative industries, a tax and benefits regime that work for freelancers, access to funding, libraries, reading for pleasure and the cultural environment, and freedom of expression.
The Publishers Association’s Susie Winter said: "The election result has caught everyone by surprise. Theresa May called an election on the question of who you want negotiating Brexit and hasn't received the answer she expected. We are now entering a period of political uncertainty but the PA will be monitoring developments, and their implications particularly for Brexit, closely to ensure that the views and concerns of the publishing industry are heard.”
Tim Godfray, c.e.o. of the Booksellers Association, suggested he expected there to be a cabinet reshuffle at the very least. “For the BA, what will be particularly important will be the ministerial appointments in the departments that cover our interests,” he said. “Some are already predicting there will be another General Election before the end of the year.”
While Bridget Shine, c.e.o. of the IPG, said few of her members would have seen the result coming, “but for those who can tear themselves away from the rolling news it will be business as usual for now”.
'The implications for Brexit could be profound though, and independent publishers are likely to be waiting a while longer for the clarity they would like on the impacts of negotiations on our industry,” she said.
Waterstones’ m.d James Daunt said he’d planned to watch the exit poll last night (8th June) and then retire to bed, but after the “unexpected” result decided to watch the action unfold. “My goodness, I was a happy man,” he said, on a personal note.
However, he added: “From a business perspective, economic stability is our prime concern. We need people to feel like they want to spend money in our shops and a period of uncertainty is going to make that more challenging.
“In terms of Brexit, it could make our exit from the European Union even more fraught and chaotic than it already is… But is there a possibility that a route to a softer Brexit has opened up? If so, this is positive but a route to an even more chaotic and destructive one also is apparent.”
Charlie Redmayne, c.e.o of Harper Collins, credited Labour on an “extraordinary campaign” which “clearly motivated a lot of young people to vote”. However he too was troubled by a further period of political unrest. “For our businesses to be successful we look to a strong economy and strong consumer confidence,” he said. “The instability thrown up by a hung parliament does not drive either of these things. For us it would be a concerning result so we’ll see how it plays out in the coming days, weeks and months."
Others are taking time to savour the unexpected gains for Labour - according to The Bookseller’s online survey of the trade last week, 64.1% intended to vote for Jeremy Corbyn’s party, while 13.1% said they intended to vote Tory (and 15.1% for Lib Dem).
Andrew Franklin, m.d. of Profile Books, called it an “exciting” night and expressed optimism for its implications on Brexit. “Perhaps this means Brexit will be softer - or as the overwhelming majority of us in the book world hope - that it will be stalled,” he said. “Perhaps Brexit can be halted altogether. And it is a reminder that sometimes the real world is as surprising as the best fiction we publish.”
Meanwhile fellow indie publisher Alessandro Gallenzi of Alma Books, said he was “delighted” with the result of the snap general election. “It is a victory of hope over gloom and austerity,” he said. “We can now expect a softer, less extreme Brexit. As I thought and secretly hoped, May completely misread the mood of the nation when she called the elections. Whoever will take over from her and conduct the Brexit negotiations (her position being hardly tenable) won't have to follow the Tory hardliners' approach, which appeared almost to take for granted that Britain would opt out of the customs union and lose access to the single market. In the space of 24 hours, the prospect of Brexit does not appear so scary and depressing any more. There is light at the end of the tunnel after all!”
However, others are much gloomier about the Tories losing a predicted 13 seats and the prospect of a hung parliament.
Iain Dale, m.d. of Biteback Publishing, said: “This is the worst possible result. It creates uncertainty and uncertainty is never good for business. We don’t know if the EU negotiations will start on time, we don’t know what the economic policy of the new government will be. It’s not so much ‘strong and stable’ as ‘weak and unable’.”
Agent Diane Banks, who publicly supported Brexit ahead of the referendum last June, said that while May’s decision to call the election was “understandable” it was now clear it was “sorely misjudged from the outset”. However, she thinks that for the creative industries “the priority now is to ensure that Conservative policy wins through”.
“Labour’s proposed £1bn Cultural Capital Fund has done its job in winning over the metropolitan arts vote but I have yet to hear one economically literate argument as to how we would actually pay for it,” she said. “As with many of Corbyn’s policies, it’s an honourable vision but it is completely unworkable. Aside from this, the creative industries require an environment which is pro innovation to survive and evolve. A 26% corporation tax would completely stifle new ventures and take us back to 1970s style corporatism. No dynamic business sector can credibly vote for this. Unfortunately, however, we’ve woken up today with that spectre still hanging around.”
She added: “With their creative industries tax credit scheme, investment in digital infrastructure, properly thought through proposals to protect IP following Brexit and interesting ideas around fostering creativity in the regions, the Conservatives are proposing practical, real world steps to protect and grow the UK’s creative industries. The big challenge now is to ensure that these are put firmly in place, though I worry that is now going to be easier said than done.”
Whatever happens over the next few days, the Creative Industries Federation said it would work “tirelessly” to hold the new government, “whatever shape it takes”, to account.
“We will continue to advocate policies that maintain the UK creative industries’ competitive advantage and keep the nation outward-looking and international, its c.e.o. John Kampfner said. “It remains vital we secure the best possible deal for the sector during what will be a turbulent period of political and constitutional change.”