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Analysts warn HMV over discounted Waterstone's
28.04.11 | Lisa Campbell
Selling Waterstone's for less than £70m could force the HMV Group into a company voluntary arrangement, analysts have warned.
The troubled music group has said that it is continuing to explore "strategic options" for its book business, but a report in the Sunday Times suggested that Russian billionaire Alexander Mamut could seal a deal for the high street bookseller for as little as £35m—half Waterstone's "fair value". Retail Week reports that the Saturday deadline - HMV Group’s year end - are "incorrect, and talks are ongoing", quoting sources familiar to the process.
Nevertheless, city analysts had the book chain to sell for between £50-70m, which would help HMV pass its banking covenant tests, but there are now concerns that further action might also be required. Last month, the HMV Group released its third profit warning predicting its end of year profit would be "around £30m"—less than half of its £74.2m profit this time last year, at the same time as revealing that the deadline for the bank covenant test had been pushed back from 30th April to 2nd July.
John Stevenson, an analyst at Peel Hunt, said: "The HMV Group will do what is necessary to raise funds, but if they take a lower bid, they will be looking to raise cash in the form of a rights issue and probably CVA because they are looking to raise around £70-80m."
CVA is a form of insolvency which could release HMV from onerous rent payments on its shops and provide a ring-fence around the company that would enable it to continue trading.
Stevenson added: "It is a way of quickly exiting on a lease obligation and will effect landlords renting to the HMV Group. If the majority of the group's creditors agree, HMV will be able to walk away from a number of lease obligations after identifying a proportion of its stores, the ones which aren't making money most likely, with immediate effect. I would expect them to be more aggressive in cutting back stores in order to cut costs now."
In the case of Waterstone's, it is more likely that the bookseller would be sold before the procedure of CVA was investigated, Stevenson said. "The sum of £35m is relatively low to buy Waterstone's but we would expect it to be relatively low because there doesn't seem to be a queue of other buyers coming forward, which doesn't administer an incentive to buy at fair value," he added.



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"There doesn't seem to be a queue of other buyers coming forward". Well there's a surprise....!
At the risk of offending sensitivities, to purchase Waterstone's with their current estate liabilities would be akin to purchasing a football league club or taking a mistress - the costs rise radically from thereonin.
Many high street bookshops would be virtually worthless in the present economic and trading environment ; yes, my business would be no different, where the redeemable worth is merely in the unique desirable stockholdings rather than lease premium value, goodwill, etc.
The bald fact is that Waterstones is probably worth the brand name and not a lot more . £35M to those in the City may look a deal but for those of us who know the business and the model it trades, will know , as Clive says, that big issues lie ahead .
Massive cuts in central costs, massive branch closure programme, re invest in staff and stock in stores retained, and invite greater support from publishers to maintain the only stockholding chain still standing. A smaller business at the turnover and cost level is the only way to save this business going forward .A vanity purchase will end in total disaster . Why is it that folk outside the industry claim that they "really love books" as a qualification ? I love beer but I dont try to run Green King .
"There doesn't seem to be a queue of other buyers coming forward..." Well there's a surprise then.....!
Very insightful comment, Daphne.
Well the bottom line is this.... HMV needs the cash.... and by the looks of things will take what they can get for Waterstones even if its not what it is worth.... But that is the business world.... The HMV board have to decide what to do and when they do live with it.... Perhaps they could have sold Waterstones before now but with all the problems with the HUB investment that the old guard of Gerry and Co left behaind made things difficult.... But now may be the time to off load Waterstone to give HMV some chance of survival...
Yes SPY,but the acquirer knows the desperation at HMV thus depressing any hope of market price , whatever that may be in this market and with Waterstones high street model issues.
Any success going forward will require life saving surgery of radical proportion , not a happy place .Prior management didn't read it correctly and as so often is the case, financiers and strategic directors ,just didn't "get" the book market. Giving away the management of the website to Amazon for a crucial 5 years, will be seen as the single most destructive act in the story -so far .
If the lenders relax the covenants on HMVs borrowing which is highly likely given they have for JPR, LMR and others its not in the banks interest for HMV to sell waterstones cheap, hmv will tell Mammut in no uncertain to terms to stop taking the piss at £35 million.Waterstones did half a billion in sales last year and was a profitable business unit for hmv. Remember HMV made 78 Million last year and are posed to make 30 million year, dont write them off just yet. The intrest cost will go up for HMV as it breaches covenants, as its lenders reset it debts. probably 1 or 2% to 3 million a year so hmv will only make 27 million. for a company doing 2 bln in turnover 160 million of debt is not a big problem. when the dust clears HMV will recover.
John , you forgot about the product . Both changing to direct digital delivery rather than physical books and music and the rate of that change in the market is accelerating.
Errr, Rubbish.
As I understand it the "Waterstones" bit of "HMV" is still profitable while the "HMV" bit (the record stores) isn't. Setting aside issues about whether either is sustainable in the long term, wouldn't it make more sense to ditch (or close or slim down) the records arm and keep the books bit?
I'm afraid you understand incorrectly. Hmv has posted higher profits than waterstones I think for each year that they have owned them and no doubt will again this year. The problem is less about current profitability (A lot of retailers would jump at £30 million ish) but the direction that profit is moving. So you can't really set aside long terms sustainability as that is the core issue
interestingly Dominic was part of that "old guard" that had the hub as part of the strategy. People seem to forget he was on the Waterstone's board which agreed all of "Gerry Johnson's" plans.
My company is a supplier to HMV, and I have recently had to reluctantly terminate that relationship. Trends go only one way. To think that sales of physical books and CDs can survive the online era is like hoping that one day water will flow uphill. I doubt if our grandchildren will ever buy a book or a CD. any business argument that pleads sentimentality is doomed. The future will be streamed. Charity shops might do books and CDs , no one else. Like marriage counselling, the discussion above points in only one direction.
And if you really want to see a retailer in serious denial, Blockbuster. The closest we have to the Soviet department store from the 1970s, GUM, on the modern high street. Extraordinary.
Jon Neville - "The future will be streamed"
You are so correct. Books, Media, Films, Gaming, Newspapers, Magazines, Music and eventually most TV will be on demand too. Any retailer that currently trades in the physical versions of these must diversify - pronto.
As I understand it, HMV will have made 30m profit in this financial year just gone, and Waterstones just 3m. As the company has roughly the same number of branches of each then they're spending an equal amount of rent on the two stores when one is only bringing in a tenth of what the other is. 35m looks like something a motivated seller would take.
Meanwhile, has anyone been into a Waterstones branch recently?
They haven't bought anything outside the top 1000 titles and customers orders for over a month now, and every store - or at least those that I have been into - have almost everything face out to give some illusion that they have some stock.
Our sales the chain have slumped from 10% of our monthly turnover to, well, near enough zero in 4 weeks.
Unless the sale goes through in some form, and the new management give some clear direction on where they see the chain going pretty fast, god knows what will happen, but it won't be pretty!
Meanwhile, the directives keep coming in about 100% compliance, "spread the word", footfall, conversion. What a shame that the bullying powers that be don't seem to realise that people won't come back to a store where's there is nothing apart from 3for2 on the shelves and tables, and that looks like it is being rundown. How many high street chains do you know where you go into a branch with hazard tape holding down carpet and air conditioning not working because the firm hasn't got enough money to pay for the part it needs? best get sorted soon, eh?
"the future of waterstone's will be resolved in four weeks" - The Bookseller website 25.03.11
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