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Scientific Nostradamus signed

09.05.08 Benedicte Page

Will Sulkin, publisher at The Bodley Head, has pre-empted for The Predictioneer by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, a US politics professor who uses game theory to predict the future.

Sulkin bought UK, Commonwealth and non-exclusive European rights in the book for a high five-figure sum from Joelle Dieu at Random House US. Bueno de Mesquita, who is based at New York and Stanford universities, has made "a slew of uncanny predictions on more than 2,000 subjects, ranging from the terrorist threat to America to the peace process in Northern Ireland". He used his techniques to forecast the Tiananmen Square massacre, the Oslo Accords and the Gulf War, and is consequently said to be in demand from the CIA and the US Department of Defence.

"The book will be a relaxed and accessible guide to game theory," Sulkin said. "The world is populated by fruit-cakes who can foresee the future, but this is an extraordinary, bona fide method. He's not using tea leaves, this is science. His predictions are something like 90% accurate." Sulkin added: "Part of me wanted to make an offer of £10,000, with a £90,000 bonus if he can predict how many copies of the book we sell within five copies."

The Predictioneer will be published simultaneously in the UK and US in spring 2010.

Benedicte Page Rights deal Will Sulkin Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

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