'Decade of the people': 2010 and beyond, part two
10.01.10 | The Bookseller News Team
A "very strong" independent sector, the growth of the e-book market and a continued fight for library campaigners are some of the predictions for next year made by figures from the retail, library and digital sides of the trade.
As polled by The Bookseller, Tim Godfray, Michael Neil, Tim Coates, Roy Clare and George Walkley were all cautiously upbeat about 2010.
Despite warning of another "tough" year for the trade, BA chief executive Godfray suggested "improved e-readers will come thick and fast" but that there will be "fewer players" in the manufacturing market.
George Walkley, head of digital at Hachette UK, predicted that industry issues lined up for next year would include "the Google Settlement, the question of copyright infringement and territorial rights". Bertrams m.d. Neil, meanwhile, heralded a "very strong year" for independents, and also hailed the forthcoming Channel 4 book club.
However library campaigner Coates warned that a new government would "have to cut sharply through the choking administration and dogged lack of wisdom that is pervasive at all levels" to save the public library service. MLA chief exec Roy Clare predicted library campaigners would gain momentum. "This will be the decade of the people," he said.
Tim Godfray, chief executive, Booksellers Association
2008 was not an easy year for UK booksellers and '09 turned out to be even tougher than that. The pressures aren't going to go away.
There is constant and increased need for evaluation because lives change so quickly and businesses need to move with the times. Consumer and business confidence will improve, but 2010 will still be tough.
Whichever government is in power they will have to take additional money from both individual taxpayers and from businesses putting great pressure on the costbases of business. This is combined with the consumer having less money to spend.
The big booksellers will develop online presence and independent booksellers will get increased offers of support from publishers, but as ever it will be consumer led and the winners will be the ones that please the consumer.
Discounting will continue to be prevalent and bestsellers sold at rrp will be atypical.
Google will continue to develop new initiatives—which will provide both threats and opportunities for the rights holders and others in the book world.
Amazon will continue to dominate the online market. Improved e-readers will come thick and fast and as a result more e-books will be bought and loaned in libraries. [There will be] fewer players.
There will always be booksellers and the print book will be around for a long time, but it will be under pressure.
$64,000 question—where will the book be purchased and on which platform will it lie?
Michael Neil, managing director, Bertrams
It was a really strong year for us after we had resolved our ownership issues. The big thing for us was getting the basics right like availability and giving customers what they want. We spent a lot of time working on availability and as a consequence we had a very strong autumn.
I think that as long as we have lots of good new books that continue to drive people into shops, we will have a very strong year.
The independent sector will have a very strong year and we are well placed to support that. We're starting to see online and independent book sales as mutually exclusive. One sector is about offering range and the other is about quality of service.
I feel quite bullish. The trade will consolidate after the end of Borders and I think 2010 will be good. 2009 has not been as bad as people thought it was going to be.
The opportunities I see next year are a resurgence in the independent sector, a strong Waterstone's from its improved supply and continued internet sales. I think the Channel 4 Book Club is interesting. Everyone suffered from a lack of Richard and Judy so it's a great opportunity for the trade. In the long term, digital will complement rather than replace paper book sales.
Tim Coates, library campaigner
If we don't play a better hand with the public library service in the next decade than we have played in the past 10 years, it will hardly exist. As clothes are important to the reputation of Marks and Spencer, books are important to public libraries. Those responsible have got to not only acknowledge this, but 'raise their game' and quickly, too or the end will truly be nigh.
In the next year, a new Government could have a big influence for the better, if it chose to try, but it will have to cut sharply through the choking administration and dogged lack of wisdom that is pervasive at all levels. At the same time we wait to see whether the apparent need for economy in local councils will truly force some sensible thinking anywhere or just more cuts. Last year the ground fighting was in Swindon and the Wirral. We wait to see where this year's battles will take place; London is certain to be one. The campaigners have now won major victories and their voice will only become louder.
Roy Clare, chief executive of the Museums, Libraries and Archives Council
The recovery from recession is going to involve us all in some new thinking. My personal style is not to be negative. We got locked up in the idea of wealth creation but most of our wealth is in our minds and spirits and I think the return to basic human values is an opportunity for us all. At a time of real hardship we are committed to helping to make a difference.
I think this will be the decade of the people. I welcomed what Channel 4 did in last week's report on libraries in including [Wirral campaigner] Don McCubbin and [Swindon campaigner] Shirley Burnham.
In the work that we are doing, what I say to elected representatives is what the people want is what matters to us.
What libraries mean is somewhere people can go and have access to their community, where good book stocks are available, and there is freedom to get onto the internet. 15 million cannot get onto the internet at home and we've been instrumental in offering local authorities the opportunity to speed up their internet access. We're inclined to be depressed because of a lack of economic power, but the economy depends on our creative and digital industries and we need to position ourselves as the world leaders in those areas.
I am working with all three political parties, but I don't know that I see a real understanding [about libraries] from any national politician. I wish national politicians would see the huge value libraries offer. I don't hear enough about it. The future of this country depends on the future of community life.
George Walkley, head of digital at Hachette UK
We have already seen some very interesting experimentation with enhancement, but over the next year it will become much more the norm, especially for big brand authors.
There are going to be some very significant industry-level issues we will come up against in the next year—for example, the Google Settlement, the question of copyright infringement and territorial rights as they become ever more important in a digital world.
Editor's blog: A tough year ahead
Comments on this article
By JULIAN RIVERS
Roy Clare forcasts a" Decade of the People ", I think that unless they change their mindset 180 degrees in the Library Sector , it will be the decade of the Red Ink cutting through administration costs - especially with a new Government . Tim[ Coates] as usual is down to earth and is in tune with reality .08 Jan 10 11:14
By Shirley Burnham
Might this really be a year in which people have a voice, before dozens of community libraries are consigned to oblivion? So many speak with 'forked tongue' but, I note, never Mr Coates. Roy Clare has burst forth here in a welcome manner. Will he follow through and make the MLA work for us? People desperately want to keep their local community libraries, with books, staff and computer access. We see the venality of those who milk the system for personal gain and ask "Why should we put up with this while libraries are being sacrificed?"08 Jan 10 15:05
By Clive Keeble
Very surprised not to see mention of the 2010 Business Rate Revaluations which is going to impact adversely on both corporate and indie high street bookshops, as compared to the internet merchandisers. An election year, with a certain austerity budget ; unemployed rising, exchange rate which is volatile etc etc. No these are going to be very hard times ; 2009 was a honeymoon compared to likely prospects for 2010.08 Jan 10 16:21
By Ponsonby
1. E-Readers will not really get off the ground in the UK. Tablet computers, so much more versatile, are the future 2. Libraries need to be less restrictive with internet access. Why do you get only half an hour free if there are PCs not being used? There are no extra costs 3. Physical bookshops will continue to be under pressure - why buy for £15 if Amazon have it for £10.99, and why bother asking a shop to order it when Amazon will deliver it in 3 days for nothing? Every time I go in Waterstone's I wonder what the point is - and I never buy anything09 Jan 10 23:56
By Poisonedby
More pearls of wisdom... Why spend a few extra pounds in your local bookshop? Ever give a second thought for the local economy or employment in your local area? Ever wonder what extra-fab discounting would exist in a retail world governed by Amazon and the supermarkets? Ever contemplate the big picture or wake up in the morning, look in the mirror and wonder "What the point is?" "Click-drunk-consumer-units" like yourself are too soul-sucking for words...10 Jan 10 15:08
By Ponsonby
People have no more reason to pay over the ods for books than for loaves of bread or tins of baked beans. Why should we support local capitalists rather than big companies by paying more than the true market price?10 Jan 10 22:08
By Mossy
But that's just it, supermarkets and Amazon sell their books mostly at a loss, way below what the actual product is worth. They don't make any profit selling the latest releases for £3! Local, smaller booksellers aren't trying to rip you off by selling a book at £6.99, it's what they need to sell it at to survive.10 Jan 10 23:33
