The Bookseller.com

18th May 2008

Alan Giles spent 20 years in bookselling with Waterstone’s and W H Smith. He retired as c.e.o. of HMV Group last year to take up non-executive and teaching roles.

Merry riskmas

26.10.07

Some publishers have interpreted W H Smith’s latest slew of half-price offers as the opening salvo of the Christmas price war. Retaliation from Waterstone’s and Borders will surely follow, but all this ammunition looks to have been fired very early indeed.

Twenty years ago customers began buying Christmas gifts in October, with momentum gradually building to a mid-December crescendo. As one colleague at the time put it: “If you aren’t alarmed at the amount of stock you have in November then you haven’t got enough.” But if the Christmas spike seemed scary then, it looks but a gentle climb compared to today’s frighteningly compressed peak. Late night opening, Sunday trading, and game-playing consumers waiting for nervous retailers to panic into pre-Christmas sales have all conspired to make shopping  occur later and later.

Today’s busy lifestyles have made advance planning too onerous for many shoppers, and online access renders much of the foot-slogging redundant. Even the spectre of jammed car parks and rapidly emptying shelves isn’t enough to prompt earlier purchasing.

Of course, much of the October flexing of muscles is designed to establish each chain’s credentials as the destination of choice come December. But the early investment of precious advertising and promotional funds is a difficult decision when the ultimate sales are going to be so much later. Personally, I would err in favour of waiting until December itself.

There are several other implications of the leave-it-to-the-last-minute trend. First, it tests the supply chain and operations capability of all retailers, but particularly online sellers. The experience of the postal strike will do nothing to boost consumer confidence, despite the highly efficient service of Amazon and others, notably the M25 service offered by samedaybooks.co.uk which—if it works—will live up to the promise of the brand name.
Second, there is the likelihood of a flight to quality for those last-minute shoppers. Customers will  go straight to the retailers they trust to have the title in stock, at a good price. That’s where W H Smith’s early campaign to emphasise its value-for-money credentials might pay off. If you can kill several other birds with one stone—as you can at the large supermarkets—even better.

Third, it leaves the whole industry prey to disruptive external events—weather, terrorism, or strikes. It has been a very long time since the UK was paralysed by snow in the week before Christmas. Let’s hope it doesn’t happen this year.

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